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英國放棄英屬印度洋領地的主權,承認在毛里求斯獨立後、在國際法上強行佔據這些島嶼屬於違法或錯誤,除了即時的地緣政治影響,也可以令大英帝國所有海外領地、乃至其他國家剩下來的海外領地全部出現身份危機:試想「交還」BIOT,雖然是源自英國在毛里求斯獨立前,強行將原殖民地分割、明顯沒有得到原住民和毛里求斯人同意的事實,但類似說法,為甚麼又不可以適用於其他目前剩下來的英國海外領地?

很多人認為這些海外領地已經可有可無。其實在地緣政治,它們依然具有重要戰略價值,一旦落入敵對陣營手中,後果不堪設想。而且很多避稅天堂也承擔了國際金融的特殊角色,中國費盡九牛二虎之力也只有一個香港、還要自費武功,可想而知這些「天堂」是如何珍貴。

最明顯例子是塞浦路斯的英軍基地。

塞浦路斯在1960年從英國獨立,當時兩國政府簽訂協定,讓英國在塞浦路斯獨立後繼續控制 Akrotiri 和 Dhekelia 兩大軍事基地,而且沒有提及年限和條件,意思就是讓英國永久保留主權,軍事基地也稱為「Sovereign Military Bases」。自從塞浦路斯一分為二,這些英國軍事基地扮演了更微妙的角色,卻反而令當地的希臘裔、土耳其裔感到難以自行決定未來。近年塞浦路斯政府也出現了收回兩大基地的呼聲,認為英國保留「主權基地」 是殖民主義的殘餘存在,不符合聯合國去殖民地化的要求。背後有沒有其他國家發功,大可自行想像。

此外,直布羅陀依然是西班牙政府聲稱的不可分割領土部份,曾經提出過英西共管方案,這個問題始終有需要解決的一天。阿根廷則繼續要求取回福克蘭群島,並在BIOT案例公佈後直接重提福克蘭問題,以此為自己打氣。值得注意的是近年中國積極支持阿根廷的福克蘭申索,用來反制英國的「香港牌」;而一旦阿根廷取回福克蘭群島,要是再投桃報李讓中國在島上建立勢力,中方就會得到接近南極洲的基地。

英國海外領地當中,加勒比海的英屬處女群島(BVI)、開曼群島(Cayman Islands)等等都是避稅天堂,此外還有知名度較低的特克斯和凱科斯群島(Turks and Caicos Islands)。特克斯和凱科斯群島本來被劃歸牙買加殖民地管轄,也是在牙買加獨立前夕,才被英國強行分割出來。根據BIOT要交給毛里求斯的同一邏輯,理論上,牙買加也隨時可以對這個群島的主權提出申索。

國際法庭判決BIOT應該交還之時,英國一直是保守黨掌權,保守黨政府就是擔心類似局面會一發不可收拾,才把BIOT問題壓下來,打算慢慢 buy time 去講數。

想不到現任工黨新政府一上台,就急於表現自己的「獨立外交政策」,去顯示自己不是美國的附庸,例如決定凍結對以色列的軍售、而不理會美國政府的勸喻;這次交還BIOT,同樣不理會美國的反應,這都是保守黨在台上相信會避免的。本來姿態歸姿態,可以說說就算,但現在BIOT 案米已成炊,說不定,工黨政府已經為大英帝國的「最終極解體」 ,走上最後一步。

⏺ 假如中英聯合聲明被任何一國違反,國際法能處理嗎?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqiAMEg41Uc

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Comments

Derek So

睇落去,工黨會唔會一年內換相,不足兩年就大選。可能有機會

KK

另一邊廂 又有報紙話 係拜登政府逼 The Telegraph understands that American officials pushed the UK toward the deal, fearing that if it was not signed, Mauritius would successfully apply for a binding ruling at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to take control of the islands, effectively shuttering the air base. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/07/joe-biden-pushed-uk-to-surrender-chagos-islands/

Joe

除咗所謂獨立外交政策,俾人睇到英國唔係美國附庸,真心睇唔到佢咁樣做有乜實際好處

小熊分析員

完全係瘋狂既決定,BIOT 軍事價值獨一無二,附近沒有可以建造機場的條件,對於對美軍以及盟友全球在區內的補給、投放武力至為重要。 保守黨食飯,工黨就要食屎以示自己與別不同,有獨立意志?

George

It once again demonstrates that left-wing governments are more eager to pursue misguided actions in a bid to briefly highlight their noble ideals, rather than focusing on what is right for the long-term interests of the country and the West. https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1841816941129867563?s=46&t=ucAzREq5eXtXW9oscmkEeg

George

This report seems more like a spun story to pin the blame on a fading politician for the mistakes made by Starmer’s stumbling ministry.

Geog

左膠是也

Ken Wong

Why would the Telegraph spin it for Starmer? The current government isn’t the Tories.

KTH

真係越睇越嬲😡 決定無經國會審議架咩?施紀賢自己決定做就做? 唔該大選投票俾工黨既人負返個責任,提出彈劾施紀賢。

KTH

施話,你睇我食屎食得幾津津有味?你得唔得呀?

pp lam

日已落帝國,完全無一個強人領袖改變英國頹勢

SC

不過,確實嘅條約仲未正式出台,最快都要到2025年先至會有初步草案,而且簽署條約係需要經過國會審批同埋通過嘅,最快都要一兩年時間;而家針對住呢一個議題嘅討論以及反對意見亦都開始發酵。 再加上施紀賢上台至今因為個人操守以及其他問題廣受質疑抨擊,長此下去,會唔會引發起工黨議員後座叛亂Backbench rébellion ,導致有關條約及決定胎死腹中? 沈教授,你有乜嘢見解呢?呢啲情況會唔會發生呢?若然真的會發生,對工黨會帶來啲咩影響呢?

Ho Man Mak

(英國)海軍最大敵人往往就係工黨

Bb

A decision as big as this is never made overnight and I highly doubt “showing left values” is the main reason. The Starmer adminstration is pretty centric and this issue is hardly the most pressing, vote winning move. According to the FT, “it was the last Tory administration that started the ball rolling on this set of negotiations.” It would be good to see more in depth commentary from insiders on how and why the decision was made and at this time, rather than reducing it into a left vs right debate.

KK

Yes. More from the author's X: The US argument was that if the ICJ issued a binding court ruling against the UK, then it would become impossible to run the base. Running flights, restocking, repairs and other services that rely on international law would be very difficult and expensive. It is in that context that Lammy and Starmer agreed to pass ownership to Mauritius, with protections in the deal against Chinese building and influence. The treaty has not yet been published, but will be before the Mauritian election on Nov 10.

KK

And why now? "I am told [by official sources] that President Biden wanted the deal done before the 5 November presidential election. Biden wanted certainty about the future of the US military base on the Chagossian island of Diego Garcia, just in case Donald Trump were to win the election." Robert Peston, ITV's political editor, said on X. It might be a half-truth, yet does make some sense. The UK-US "special relationship" is more complex than we usually thought.

Zero

Cyprus 的軍事基地絕對係去中東的前哨站,以哈戰爭期間直升機經常來回升降,撤僑同人道支援亦係由Cyprus 的基地出發

Good Year

保守黨搞衰左經濟, 黎過唔識搞既工黨, 又人口流失又呢又路 但英國仲係好地地.... 避稅天堂近年角色係退減緊, 要申報既野越黎越多, 各國籍口反洗黑錢已經好多人中左招, 留意黑錢呢家野大陸都打。 天堂其實係白手套, 但歐洲同美國已經呢呢D白套用大光燈照, 你唔係本身有默契, 好難再用

Dennis Lam

日落帝國自己攞黎, 望住班白左真係覺得好笑, 只係識慷他人之概