聖誕老人不來了？ (Patreon)

S&P500 had a significant fall on Wednesday dropping 2.95%, Nasdaq fell 3.6%. One of the biggest single day move this year and the largest one since the carry trade unwind in August 2024. The trigger for this was a more hawkish Fed indicating next year will have less rate cuts than market hoped.

星期三，S&P500 大跌 2.95%，而納斯達克指數跌了 3.6%。這是今年最大的單日跌幅之一，自 2024 年 8 月的套利交易解除以來的最大跌幅。這次暴跌的觸發因素是聯儲局釋放了更鷹派的信息，表示明年的減息幅度將少於市場預期。

As market sold off, falling below 20d MA then 50d MA and VIX shot up to 30. This triggered mechanical selling by systematic macro strategy funds (vol target + CTA + risk party). As explained 2 weeks ago, due to their already stretched positioning, there is an asymmetrical risk profile where there will be more selling than buying by these funds if the markets moved down or up by the same amount.

市場隨之拋售，下跌至 20 日移動平均線以下，然後又跌破 50 日移動平均線，VIX 指數飆升至 30。這引發了系統性宏觀策略基金（包括波動率目標、 CTA 和風險平價策略基金）的進一步機械性拋售。正如兩週前所提到的，這些基金已經處於過度持倉狀態，因此當市場向上或向下波動相同幅度時，會出現不對稱的風險，導致下跌時拋售壓力大於上漲時的買入力度。

On Friday, we had a small relief rally following the steep 2 day sell off, helping S&P to barely hold on to its 50d MA.

During this week, many positions were stopped out including APH, SBUX, COIN, PLNT, RPH, XPO and CCL. Luckily some of these positions were sold at a profit or at breakeven so the total realized loss was only -3R (not counting CCL’s profit).

星期五，在連續兩天的暴跌後，市場出現了小幅反彈，幫助標普 500 指數勉強守住了 50 日移動平均線。在這次事件中，許多倉位被強制平倉，包括 APH、SBUX、COIN、PLNT、RPH、XPO 和 CCL。幸運的是，其中一些倉位以盈利或持平的狀態賣出，因此總體實現的虧損僅為 3 倍風險單位（不包括 CCL 的利潤）。

During this drawdown, it is worth remembering there will be easy periods for trading and there will be difficult periods. Much of October and November had been on the easy side. This week was certainty on the tougher side.

At this point, the question on everyone’s mind is changed from “what should I buy next” to “what is next”? CNN’s Fear and Greed indicator fell to nearly “Extreme Fear”.

在這次回調期間，值得記住的是，交易有時會有容易的時期，也會有困難的時期。整個十月和十一月大部分時間都比較容易，而本週無疑是屬於較困難的一面。

現在，每個人心中的問題已經從「下一步該買什麼？」變成了「接下來會發生什麼？」。CNN 的恐懼與貪婪指數已接近「極度恐懼」。

With the holiday week coming up and many fund managers either done for the year or away on holiday, the market move in the coming 2 weeks will be less meaningful than usual. If we were still in the extreme bullish sentiment like before this week, I would say keep trading + hope for a Santa Clause rally and fireworks. But now S&P500 is resting on 50d MA, we had a second big sell off since August, faith in the bull market is being tested. Even if it rebounds in the next few days, when institutional investors return in January, the direction can easily change again.

With that said, and the fact that I’m travelling and can’t follow the markets closely, I plan to be passive the next two weeks. Keeping and monitoring the positions I have (SHOP, UPST, URBN, Bitcoin, BROS, TSLA) and will avoid adding new ones.

由於假期即將來臨，許多基金經理要麼已完成全年操作，要麼正在度假，因此未來兩週的市場走勢可能不如平時有參考意義。如果我仍處於本週之前那樣的極度樂觀情緒中，我會建議繼續交易，期待聖誕老人行情和煙火般的表現。但現在，標普 500 指數停留在 50 日移動平均線，我們已經經歷了自 8 月以來的第二次大幅拋售，對牛市的信心正受到考驗。即使接下來幾天有所反彈，當機構投資者在一月份回歸時，方向仍可能再次改變。

考慮到這一點，加上我正在旅行，無法密切關注市場，我計劃在未來兩週內採取被動的策略。保持並監控我目前的持倉 (SHOP, UPST, URBN, Bitcoin, BROS, TLSA)，避免新增倉位。

Medium Term Ideas: Russell 2000 + Banks

The two medium term investment ideas have corrected a fair amount as prospect of further rate cuts diminished. For these, I’m using the support level before Trump was elected as the stop. Reason is, in theory, these sectors benefit from a Trump administration (hence the price action following the election) so following that logic they should not trade below before when Trump was elected. If it does, then perhaps my thesis is wrong or the overall market is not cooperating.

中期投資想法：羅素 2000 和銀行板塊

這兩個中期投資想法已經因減息預期降低而出現了相當大的回調。對於這些，我將以特朗普當選前的支撐位作為止損位。理論上，這些板塊從特朗普政府中受益（因此出現了選舉後的價格走勢），按照這一邏輯，它們的價格不應低於特朗普當選時的水平。

但不論是否受益於特朗普，必須記住，這些板塊和指數 ETF 包含了數百只股票。因此，如果整體市場下跌，它們也會下跌。如果標普 500 確實進入中期回調，IWM 和 KRE 的跌幅也會更大。

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Regional Banks (KRE)

Benefit from Trump or not, one needs to remember these sector and index ETFS consists of hundreds of stocks. So if the overall market falls, they will fall too. So if US market really enters into a medium term correction, IWM and KRE will likely fall too.

無論是否受益於特朗普，都需要記住，這些板塊和指數 ETF 包含了數百隻股票。因此，如果整體市場下跌，它們也會下跌。所以如果美國市場真的進入中期調整，IWM 和 KRE 也很可能會下跌。

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