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538 Predictions: Eve of Disaster (Patreon)

Published:
2020-10-31 03:11:04
Imported:
2024-12
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Boo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1e-aVxGwJU

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Comments

Reynold Hall

Ok That pic is legitimately terrifying.

Tankard

I like how Tom and Cecil don't recognize Gary's voice, lol.

Chad from Cincinnati

I think Hardcore History did a couple hours on the Christmas Day truce.

Joel McNicklickel

If it’s cross play, I’m on mobile and would be willing to play AmongUs with you guys! I’m on Hawaii time. Anything to keep my mind from worrying about my: military, absentee, mail in ballot to Harris county TX...

Anne

Hard disagree that if Dems take House and Senate but Trump wins prez, that he won’t be able to get anything done. I know y’all know this, but just to strike more dread into your hearts... He’ll still have exec orders and appointments a la Ben Carson and Erik Prince’s sister. They know the courts are likely to let them chip away at existing law/rules. So yeah, get the fuck out and vote, and comb through your contacts to encourage them to do same. This is not the year to make assumptions or be shy about nagging people. See y’all on the other side!

Dean Paxton

The worry of violence from Trump voters is very real. I live around the Eastern border of Ohio and my town is full of Trump shrines, literal trailers set up with tons of Trump nonsense all over it. I count at least four of them on my way to work, which is a 30 minute drive. “Fuck your feelings” is probably the worst one we see. My partner is Korean and she refuses to go shopping alone, because all of these idiots not only love calling it “China virus”, but in their racist wisdom also think that all people of Asian descent come from the exact same area, and that none of them were born in America. It’s seriously terrifying to live here and not even my veteran status protects me as my “Veterans for Biden/Harris” flag was taken. A neighbor’s BLM flag was also taken. I worry constantly, and I say it all from a position of privilege as a white man. I can’t imagine existing as a person of color right now.

Christian Fröschlin

Regarding the christmas truce Extra History has a two-part video series on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUlPNWDvk-c&t=0s

Christian Fröschlin

Also regarding the topic of probabilities note you cannot consider states "safe" at an arbitrary cut-off since there are many states (e.g. if you had 10 states with a 10% probability of A winning then the most probable outcome would be that 1 of them goes to A while 0 and 2 are also quite likely). Although I understand in this case it was a set where only one state was around 10% and the others much lower so it probably works out.